Associated Technology Pipeline Limited - Pipeline Integrity Management Systems

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Risk Expert	A component of PiMSlider®, Risk Expert is a tool to assess the technological and ecological risks associated with operating a pipeline	Download

Key Points

Identification of conditions that threaten the integrity of the pipeline

Grouping of conditions that have been identified

A quantification of the likelihood and consequence of any (group of) condition(s)

The calculation of relative risk along the pipeline route, section by section

Identification of local high-risk areas that may need special attention

Risk ranking and identification of specific threats that primarily influence or drive the risk

Graphical presentation of calculated relative risk levels along the pipeline route (schematic chart in a GIS-environment)

Analysis of mitigating measures on the calculated relative risk level

'What if' simulation to estimate the effect of changes on the risk reducing benefit of remedial actions

Fig. 1 - technological risk along the pipeline

Fig. 2 - 'What-if' modelling for a segment
with a high level of risk

Fig. 3 - groups and factors weight system

RISK EXPERT

To ensure a secure and reliable pipeline operation, Risk Expert users need to know answers to the following questions:

what pipeline segments are most subjected to failures,

at what place along the pipeline the worst consequences would occur in case of failure

what measures should be taken to decrease the level of risk

how best to allocate financial and manpower resources in the most optimal way

Part of the PIMSlider® suite of software applications, the Risk Expert module allows the pipeline company to carry out a relative risk assessment of the pipeline, to plan remedy actions, and to evaluate their relative costs.

Risk Expert is the perfect tool for setting priorities for maintenance and inspection programs. A model is created that identifies and quantifies the major threats and consequences of pipeline objects (crossings, defects) and its environment (soil type, population density).

RISK FACTORS & GROUPS

The basis of these calculations is from a system of groups � groups of reasons for failure or losses as a result of failure. By assigning weights and numbers against each group, the operator can define a system most suitable to each level of risk, based upon their opinion, against the entire pipeline.

Assessing the level of risk is done by establishing those influential factors (for example, a nearby built-up area, a reserve, a crossing with a highway, an underwater crossing) and identifying their level of risk according to the chosen system of weight factors.

Risks Expert can graphically represent any set of technological and ecological risks (individual or groups of factors) for a chosen pipeline section. By changing risk, graphs are automatically updated, therefore making it clear which factor or groups of factors directly influence the risk index for each pipeline section

RELATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL

Risk Expert creates a model of relative risk based upon the pipeline data available. Using this model, the Risk Management team from the pipeline operating company can identify the appropriate algorithms for risk calculation, based on their understanding of their pipeline. The algorithms will clearly identify those known areas of high risk, where all other low and medium level risks are shown relative to those high risk areas. These assumptions and calculations are set entirely at the discretion of the operating company.

A successful risk assessment model can potentially change the way an operator manages a pipeline. The intention is for the operator to increase the safety of the pipeline and be able to allocate resources more efficiently. The result of such actions will reduce any failure rates, increase pipeline management efficiently and effectively and manage the pipeline more economically.

Data from PiMSlider� provide the basic elements for Risk Expert. It enables the operator to calculate the relative risk level on any section of the pipeline or, when required, for the pipeline as a whole.

Risk Expert supports a structured risk assessment methodology and guarantees well documented results (with full integration to the MS Office suite) that are required to evaluate the result of changes in conditions and to carry out any future re-assessment.

Risk Expert offers an adaptable and changeable method of risk assessment that will accommodate current and future integrity management programs.